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IDC Predictions 2010 – Recovery and Transformation

Posted by Frank Gens on December 5th, 2009

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On Thursday December 3rd, IDC released its big picture predictions for the IT and Telecommunications industry in 2010. Here are some links for more detail.

The Webcast – The recorded one-hour IDC Predictions 2010 telebriefing (simple registration required):>

IDC Predictions 2010 telebriefing

The Document – The full “IDC Predictions 2010″ document:

  • For IDC clients:


  • For non-clients (simple registration required):

download IDC Predictions 2010

The Video – And here’s the 5-minute video summary:

Answers to Telebriefing Questions – On Thursday’s IDC Predictions webcast, our line to the On24 service dropped just a few questions into the Q&A session. We captured all the questions, and over the next several days we’ll post answers to those questions here on IDC eXchange. So stay tuned!

Microsoft + Yahoo! = ??!

Posted by Frank Gens on February 5th, 2008

microhoo.jpgLast Friday’s unsolicited proposal from Microsoft to Yahoo!’s board of directors was unquestionably Topic A for many of us in the industry over the weekend. The consensus, if there is one, is that if this marriage is consummated, it is either going to be a very potent challenge to Google’s rising power, or a waste of $44 billion.

There are many precedents for large mergers not working, so predicting certain success would be very, very foolish. But over on, my colleagues and I have posted some key reasons why “Microsoft+Yahoo” makes sense. This chart from the IDC analysis shows one such reason: [ more...]

Cisco: the Communication Business Solutions Provider?

Posted by Frank Gens on December 21st, 2007

In Cisco & WebEx: Striking Two Hyperdisruption Chords, we said that Cisco – in the wake of its WebEx acquisition – has a disruption-enabled opportunity to expand its business far beyond networking, moving “up the stack” toward business applications and solutions. Last week, at C-Scape, Cisco’s analyst briefing in San Jose, John Chambers and other Cisco executives articulated just such an expansive vision of the company’s future – one they hope will move the company well beyond its traditional role as networking sector leader, to a leader in providing a wide range of business solutions. [ more...]

Who Owns the Web? Once Again…

Posted by Frank Gens on April 5th, 2007

Just after I posted “Who Owns the Web? Guess Again…” – a piece about the shift of web search and queries from the big horizontal gateways to more brand- and community-focused hubs – NBC Universal and News Corp. announced a joint venture aimed at taking advantage of, and accelerating, that shift. In this video post, I continue the discussion about the Web power shift with IDC’s Susan Feldman and Rachel Happe, with topics ranging from online advertising and content distribution networks, to the growing importance of social networking and communities. [ more...]

Who Owns the Web? Guess Again…

Posted by Frank Gens on March 21st, 2007

[Over on, I came across this interesting piece from from IDC's Sue Feldman and Rachel Happe. It challenges the wisdom that Google, Yahoo, AOL, MSN and other Internet "gateways" have wrapped up control of search on the Web, based on an IDC simulation and analysis of query data. It suggests the Web 2.0 phenomenon of more and more communities developing around narrower domains of interest and expertise (including exploding social networking sites) will undercut the dominance of the broad gateway sites.]

Popular wisdom tells us that the battle for Web hegemony is won. The big search engines — and in particular Google — have the online ad market all sewn up. But new research at IDC may put an end to this belief. [ more...]

Why Will Be Acquired in 2007

Posted by Frank Gens on February 2nd, 2007

In IDC Predictions 2007, one call that has sparked a lot of attention and debate is: will be acquired in 2007. We believe the growing importance of online delivery of software and business services will make (and particularly its AppExchange hub) a very tempting target to both large players (like IBM, SAP, Oracle, Microsoft) still struggling to scale down and move online, and consumer-heavy players (like Google, Yahoo!, AOL) trying to “scale up” to the business market as a way to further monetize their online presence.

A number of clients (as well as some IDC colleagues!) have pinged me for more detail on why I see a acquisition coming, especially since founder Marc Benioff has consistently asserted that the company is not for sale. Here’s the story… [ more...]

Building a “Ubiquity Bridge” for SMB Adoption

Posted by Frank Gens on January 10th, 2007

We’ve written a lot about the growing importance for IT suppliers to have strong strategies and offerings for the SMB (small/medium business) market. We’ve also written about two key ingredients for success in the evolving SMB space: 1) moving SMB offerings to an online delivery model (e.g., Software-as-a-Service, Services-as-Software), and 2) developing (and/or participating in) very large, online, SOA-based ecosystems that support a high-leverage, low-cost customized solution model based on an explosion of off the shelf, “microvertical” applications and services (see IDC Predictions 2007).

Another important ingredient for success in the evolving SMB market is to develop entry points for key offerings that make it very, very easy for SMBs to begin experiencing benefits, while minimizing hassles and risks. I call this building a “ubiquity bridge” for SMB adoption. [ more...]

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