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IDC Predictions 2010 Webcast Q&A

Posted by Frank Gens on December 9th, 2009

QandA_smOn Thursday’s IDC Predictions 2010 webcast, our line to the On24 service dropped just a few questions into the Q&A session. We captured all the questions, and – as promised – we are posting answers to them here on IDC eXchange. Many thanks to my IDC colleagues who contributed to these Q&A responses.

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What’s Driving the Cloud Computing Era? An IT Market View

Posted by Frank Gens on September 23rd, 2008

Many people reasonably wonder if the growing interest in cloud computing is a just a short term phenomenon – the latest hype destined to join other fads in the tech market trash bin. As we’ve discussed before, IDC believes that the rapid emergence of cloud services, and the cloud computing model underpinning those services, are ushering in a fundamentally new era of growth and competition in the IT market.

The main reason we believe this is so, is that the cloud computing shift is being driven not just by the emergence of new products and technologies, but by a “perfect storm” of market forces, along three vectors: [...read more...]

Cisco, WebEx and the Cloud – Will Cisco Speed Up, Or Slow Down?

Posted by Frank Gens on August 14th, 2008

Cisco logoFor the past several years, the #1 topic we’ve discussed on this blog is the ongoing shift of business, consumer and IT offerings to the Web – a key element of a broad and profound market transformation IDC has called “hyperdisruption“. So, with all due modesty, the emerging “cloud” model and its growing impact on the market is hardly new news. But 2008 is bringing a big surge in awareness of, and momentum around, this shift to online delivery and consumption; as we predicted, this is being driven by big players – traditional and disruptive alike – finally dropping big cloud-related announcements and offerings on the market.

So when I met last week with Cisco CEO John Chambers, I was particularly interested in his perspectives on the opportunities and threats for Cisco, as the cloud model shifts into a higher gear. [...read more...]

IBM’s “Blue Business Platform” Is a Very Big Deal

Posted by Frank Gens on June 16th, 2008

We’ve talked repeatedly about the growing importance of the SMB market (especially in emerging markets) for IT market growth. And we’ve asserted that it will take a new, “hyperdisrupted” solution development and delivery model – one that leverages online delivery (e.g., SaaS), web services and mashup application models, appliance-like systems, and very large, global solution communities – to really capture that SMB potential. We’ve also noted that IBM has been conspicuous in its absence, as other suppliers have experimented with these new models and brought them to market.

Now, as we’ve predicted, IBM is making its move. Last month, at its annual gathering of business partners, IBM finally revealed the core pieces of a new, Internet-infused service delivery model it’s been developing for the SMB market, labeled the “Blue Business Platform”. Here are a couple of clips of IBM’s Sam Palmisano (with Google CEO Eric Schmidt) talking about the new Platform at the event:

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    “GoogleForce” Rumors – and Debates – Continue

    Posted by Frank Gens on April 11th, 2008

    GoogleForceI saw an interesting post yesterday from Dennis Howlett: Google and Salesforce.com: does it make sense?. The post was driven by fresh rumors this week about more ties developing between these two companies, and the vision of an end-game in which Google uplifts its online business applications and services offerings by acquiring Salesforce. [We first talked about Google as a business applications and services platform in 2005, and talked about the wisdom of a Google/Salesforce marriage in 2006, again in 2007, and most recently in IDC Predictions 2008.]

    Dennis’ post reasonably questions the sense of this match, in part because of information privacy worries tied to Google’s Terms of Service (does Google really lay claim to ownership of all content produced with its apps?), as well as his assessment that Google’s current software is still functionally primitive compared to the best packaged software out there. [...read more...]

    Handicapping Cisco’s Business Solutions Potential

    Posted by Frank Gens on January 11th, 2008

    In my last post, I wrote about Cisco’s expanding ambitions – to move from a communication products company to a business solutions provider and platform. In this post, I briefly assess Cisco’s potential to get there. [...read more...]

    “IDC Predictions for 2008″ Published Today

    Posted by Frank Gens on December 6th, 2007

    This morning, my colleagues and I published IDC’s predictions for the 2008 IT marketplace: IDC Predictions 2008 – The “Post-Disruption” Marketplace Takes Shape.

    The headlines are two-fold, and closely related to each other: 1) Worldwide IT spending growth will be down by 1 to 1-1/2 points, and 2) IT’s big market makers will stop pussyfooting around, and finally jump into new, disruptive business models and offerings with both feet – to open up the hyper-growth emerging market and SMB segments. [...read more...]

    Earlier this month, IBM’s Systems & Technology Group (STG) hosted its annual briefing for IT industry analysts in Stamford, CT. The briefing covered a lot of ground in 1-1/2 days. But, in my view, the two biggest stories were STG’s plans to: 1) get more proactive with partners around solutions development and delivery, and 2) dramatically increase its SMB market share through new product designs and new delivery models. Here are my key takeaways: [...read more...]

    SAP Shifts from Evolution to Revolution for the SMB Long Tail

    Posted by Frank Gens on May 10th, 2007

    Henning Kagermann, SAP CEOTwo years ago, SAP’s CEO Henning Kagermann told me that he did not foresee any major shift in the company’s large business vs. SMB revenue mix: “We have today a 70%/30% revenue mix. Next year, it might be 68%/32% – that is not a revolution.”

    His rationale was that the large enterprise business was such a big focus for SAP – and would continue to account for so much of the business – that any SMB progress would seem marginal, relative to SAP’s overall growth. As it turns out, he was right: in the subsequent two years, the mix didn’t change that much; at this year’s SAPPHIRE, Hans-Peter Klaey, the president of SAP’s new SMB line-of-business, said that today’s SMB share of SAP business is around 30%.

    But, as we anticipated last year, things have clearly changed at SAP – in the priority that management is putting on the SMB market, and in terms of what SAP is prepared to do to compete successfully. [...read more...]

    A few weeks ago, I spoke at our annual State of the IT Industry event – IDC Directions – about the remarkable hyperdisruption we see in process in the IT market. A number of clients, among the over 2,000 that attended between the San Jose and Boston venues, have asked for the video of my talk. Here it is (without the “bat-spinning” demo I showed on-site):



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