Search this Blog:
IDC eXchange Home

Time to Revise Our 2010 Android Apps Prediction

Posted by Frank Gens on January 5th, 2010

NexusOne_sm

Now that Google has announced the Nexus One – its own version of an Android-based “app phone” (h/t David Pogue) – they have enhanced the likelihood of an even larger and faster-growing base of Adroid apps than we predicted last month.

In IDC Predictions 2010, we forecasted that “Google Android — now on a dozen devices — will emerge as a potent competitor to the iPhone, BlackBerry, Symbian, and Microsoft platforms.” We went on to say “there are now about 10,000 applications for Android; we predict there will be a strong ramp (albeit slower than the iPhone app ramp) for Android — look for 50,000–75,000 applications by the end of 2010.”

Why, you may ask, did we envision a slower ramp than for iPhone apps? This is what we said: “The advantage of Android — that it’s more “open” than the iPhone platform — creates more compatibility challenges for developers across the different device manufacturers’ hardware.” And this multiple-manufacturers philosophy has, indeed, created some compatibility/portability frustration for the Android developer community.

But now, with the Nexus One effectively creating a strong reference platform for Android apps, Google is trying to mitigate that issue. The Nexus One will likely drive other Android handset manufacturers to put more a bit more weight on compatibility with the Nexus One implementation of Android, and less on hacking/modifying Android to adapt to their own unique hardware designs. And that’s good news for Android developers – and customers.

So – if it’s not too soon to adjust our 2010 predictions (heck, it’s only January 5th!) – we’d like to revise our year-end 2010 Android apps prediction to 75,000-100,000, closer to the iPhone’s year one trajectory. We’re not quite predicting that Apple’s running for cover; the Nexus One is, after all, a version 1.0 product, and the iPhone continues to have enormous momentum. But with Google’s strategic move to strengthen (and de-fragment) its mobile apps platform, Apple is certainly looking at a tougher competitor today than they saw yesterday.

IDC Survey: What IT Is Likely to Move to the Cloud?

Posted by Frank Gens on January 5th, 2010

cloud_surveyIn a recent post, I shared users’ perceptions of cloud benefits and challenges from our most recent IDC IT Cloud Services Survey. In this post, I’ll show what these same IT and line-of-business executives say about their likeliness to adopt the cloud services model for different IT applications, workloads and services.

Once again, the survey was fielded, from the IDC Enterprise Panel of IT executives and their line-of-business (LOB) colleagues.

Organizations Are Likely to Consider Cloud Delivery for Many IT Offerings

We asked the panel to rate their organizations’ likelihood – on a 1 (very unlikely) to 5 (very likely) scale – to pursue the cloud model for a variety of IT applications, workloads and services. The chart below shows the percentage of panelists responding 3, 4 or 5 – that is, neutral to very likely.

[...read more...]

IDC Predictions 2010 Webcast Q&A

Posted by Frank Gens on December 9th, 2009

QandA_smOn Thursday’s IDC Predictions 2010 webcast, our line to the On24 service dropped just a few questions into the Q&A session. We captured all the questions, and – as promised – we are posting answers to them here on IDC eXchange. Many thanks to my IDC colleagues who contributed to these Q&A responses.

[...read more...]

IDC Predictions 2010 – Recovery and Transformation

Posted by Frank Gens on December 5th, 2009

IDC predictions banner

On Thursday December 3rd, IDC released its big picture predictions for the IT and Telecommunications industry in 2010. Here are some links for more detail.

The Webcast – The recorded one-hour IDC Predictions 2010 telebriefing (simple registration required):>

IDC Predictions 2010 telebriefing

The Document – The full “IDC Predictions 2010″ document:

  • For IDC clients:

IDC_client_research

  • For non-clients (simple registration required):

download IDC Predictions 2010

The Video – And here’s the 5-minute video summary:

Answers to Telebriefing Questions – On Thursday’s IDC Predictions webcast, our line to the On24 service dropped just a few questions into the Q&A session. We captured all the questions, and over the next several days we’ll post answers to those questions here on IDC eXchange. So stay tuned!

The “Open Cloud”: a Pre-Condition for Broad Cloud Adoption?

Posted by Frank Gens on March 31st, 2009

[UPDATE - Good news: looks like someone at Microsoft is hearing the same things from users that we're hearing. On Monday early a.m., Steve Martin posted that Microsoft was, after all, going to meet with the Open Cloud Manifesto group later that day.]

Open Cloud ManifestoOn Monday, 30+ IT vendors announced the creation of the “Open Cloud Manifesto” group, with a declared intent to “initiate a conversation that will bring together the emerging cloud computing community (both cloud users and cloud providers) around a core set of principles. We believe that these core principles are rooted in the belief that cloud computing should be as open as all other IT technologies.”

Much has been made about the fact that IBM and the rest of this group were not able to convince key Cloud players – particularly Amazon, Google, Salesforce.com and Microsoft – to join in. One obvious reason: these companies are all rivals for a strategic control point in the cloud: the application platform. (To me, the interesting exception was SAP, which is among those competing at the application platform level in the cloud, but still signed on to the IBM-led Manifesto.)

Yes, this kind of IT vendor rivalry is as old as the IT industry. But anyone who’s listening to customers today (including – importantly – those not yet leveraging the cloud), knows that driving more agreement around cloud service interoperability and data portability is going to be a very important element in moving cloud computing “across the chasm“. [...read more...]

As part of our ongoing research into Cloud Computing, IDC recently conducted a survey of 244 IT executives/CIOs and their line-of-business (LOB) colleagues about their companies’ use of, and views about, IT Cloud Services. In part 1, we looked at current and future adoption of IT cloud services. In part 2, we looked at users’ views about the key benefits and challenges of IT cloud services.

This post, part 3, identifies the most important attributes users want in their preferred IT cloud services providers. [...read more...]

What’s Driving the Cloud Computing Era? An IT Market View

Posted by Frank Gens on September 23rd, 2008

Many people reasonably wonder if the growing interest in cloud computing is a just a short term phenomenon – the latest hype destined to join other fads in the tech market trash bin. As we’ve discussed before, IDC believes that the rapid emergence of cloud services, and the cloud computing model underpinning those services, are ushering in a fundamentally new era of growth and competition in the IT market.

The main reason we believe this is so, is that the cloud computing shift is being driven not just by the emergence of new products and technologies, but by a “perfect storm” of market forces, along three vectors: [...read more...]

IBM’s “Blue Business Platform” Is a Very Big Deal

Posted by Frank Gens on June 16th, 2008

We’ve talked repeatedly about the growing importance of the SMB market (especially in emerging markets) for IT market growth. And we’ve asserted that it will take a new, “hyperdisrupted” solution development and delivery model – one that leverages online delivery (e.g., SaaS), web services and mashup application models, appliance-like systems, and very large, global solution communities – to really capture that SMB potential. We’ve also noted that IBM has been conspicuous in its absence, as other suppliers have experimented with these new models and brought them to market.

Now, as we’ve predicted, IBM is making its move. Last month, at its annual gathering of business partners, IBM finally revealed the core pieces of a new, Internet-infused service delivery model it’s been developing for the SMB market, labeled the “Blue Business Platform”. Here are a couple of clips of IBM’s Sam Palmisano (with Google CEO Eric Schmidt) talking about the new Platform at the event:

    [...read more...]

    “GoogleForce” Rumors – and Debates – Continue

    Posted by Frank Gens on April 11th, 2008

    GoogleForceI saw an interesting post yesterday from Dennis Howlett: Google and Salesforce.com: does it make sense?. The post was driven by fresh rumors this week about more ties developing between these two companies, and the vision of an end-game in which Google uplifts its online business applications and services offerings by acquiring Salesforce. [We first talked about Google as a business applications and services platform in 2005, and talked about the wisdom of a Google/Salesforce marriage in 2006, again in 2007, and most recently in IDC Predictions 2008.]

    Dennis’ post reasonably questions the sense of this match, in part because of information privacy worries tied to Google’s Terms of Service (does Google really lay claim to ownership of all content produced with its apps?), as well as his assessment that Google’s current software is still functionally primitive compared to the best packaged software out there. [...read more...]

    Microsoft + Yahoo! = ??!

    Posted by Frank Gens on February 5th, 2008

    microhoo.jpgLast Friday’s unsolicited proposal from Microsoft to Yahoo!’s board of directors was unquestionably Topic A for many of us in the industry over the weekend. The consensus, if there is one, is that if this marriage is consummated, it is either going to be a very potent challenge to Google’s rising power, or a waste of $44 billion.

    There are many precedents for large mergers not working, so predicting certain success would be very, very foolish. But over on idc.com, my colleagues and I have posted some key reasons why “Microsoft+Yahoo” makes sense. This chart from the IDC analysis shows one such reason: [...read more...]


    About IDC | Contact IDC | Privacy Policy | Site Index | Reprints | Worldwide Offices | Objectivity
    Copyright 2005 IDC. Reproduction is forbidden unless authorized. All rights reserved. Trademarks | Terms of Use