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Time to Revise Our 2010 Android Apps Prediction

Posted by Frank Gens on January 5th, 2010


Now that Google has announced the Nexus One – its own version of an Android-based “app phone” (h/t David Pogue) – they have enhanced the likelihood of an even larger and faster-growing base of Adroid apps than we predicted last month.

In IDC Predictions 2010, we forecasted that “Google Android — now on a dozen devices — will emerge as a potent competitor to the iPhone, BlackBerry, Symbian, and Microsoft platforms.” We went on to say “there are now about 10,000 applications for Android; we predict there will be a strong ramp (albeit slower than the iPhone app ramp) for Android — look for 50,000–75,000 applications by the end of 2010.”

Why, you may ask, did we envision a slower ramp than for iPhone apps? This is what we said: “The advantage of Android — that it’s more “open” than the iPhone platform — creates more compatibility challenges for developers across the different device manufacturers’ hardware.” And this multiple-manufacturers philosophy has, indeed, created some compatibility/portability frustration for the Android developer community.

But now, with the Nexus One effectively creating a strong reference platform for Android apps, Google is trying to mitigate that issue. The Nexus One will likely drive other Android handset manufacturers to put more a bit more weight on compatibility with the Nexus One implementation of Android, and less on hacking/modifying Android to adapt to their own unique hardware designs. And that’s good news for Android developers – and customers.

So – if it’s not too soon to adjust our 2010 predictions (heck, it’s only January 5th!) – we’d like to revise our year-end 2010 Android apps prediction to 75,000-100,000, closer to the iPhone’s year one trajectory. We’re not quite predicting that Apple’s running for cover; the Nexus One is, after all, a version 1.0 product, and the iPhone continues to have enormous momentum. But with Google’s strategic move to strengthen (and de-fragment) its mobile apps platform, Apple is certainly looking at a tougher competitor today than they saw yesterday.

IDC Predictions 2010 – Recovery and Transformation

Posted by Frank Gens on December 5th, 2009

IDC predictions banner

On Thursday December 3rd, IDC released its big picture predictions for the IT and Telecommunications industry in 2010. Here are some links for more detail.

The Webcast – The recorded one-hour IDC Predictions 2010 telebriefing (simple registration required):>

IDC Predictions 2010 telebriefing

The Document – The full “IDC Predictions 2010″ document:

  • For IDC clients:


  • For non-clients (simple registration required):

download IDC Predictions 2010

The Video – And here’s the 5-minute video summary:

Answers to Telebriefing Questions – On Thursday’s IDC Predictions webcast, our line to the On24 service dropped just a few questions into the Q&A session. We captured all the questions, and over the next several days we’ll post answers to those questions here on IDC eXchange. So stay tuned!

IBM’s “Blue Business Platform” Is a Very Big Deal

Posted by Frank Gens on June 16th, 2008

We’ve talked repeatedly about the growing importance of the SMB market (especially in emerging markets) for IT market growth. And we’ve asserted that it will take a new, “hyperdisrupted” solution development and delivery model – one that leverages online delivery (e.g., SaaS), web services and mashup application models, appliance-like systems, and very large, global solution communities – to really capture that SMB potential. We’ve also noted that IBM has been conspicuous in its absence, as other suppliers have experimented with these new models and brought them to market.

Now, as we’ve predicted, IBM is making its move. Last month, at its annual gathering of business partners, IBM finally revealed the core pieces of a new, Internet-infused service delivery model it’s been developing for the SMB market, labeled the “Blue Business Platform”. Here are a couple of clips of IBM’s Sam Palmisano (with Google CEO Eric Schmidt) talking about the new Platform at the event:

    [ more...]

    More On Intel’s Mobile Device Plans (video)

    Posted by Frank Gens on September 21st, 2007

    In yesterday’s post, I wrote about Intel’s plans to drive the Intel Architecture (IA) down into mobile device form factors as small as Apple’s iPhone handset. At the Intel Developer Forum (IDF) in San Francisco, I got more detail on the company’s mobile device strategy from Gadi Singer, VP of Intel’s Mobility Group. In this video, he shows off an example of a “Menlow”-based device, of the type we’ll see OEMs ship in early 2008. Then he shows a more iPhone-sized device, based on Menlow’s successor, the “Moorestown” platform, which Intel claims will ship by 2010 – although the market (and Paul Otellini’s ambitions for these devices) will certainly pressure Intel to ship earlier if possible. [ more...]

    Design Target for Intel’s Mobile Device Strategy? The iPhone.

    Posted by Frank Gens on September 19th, 2007

    Paul OtelliniAt the Intel Developer Forum this week in San Francisco, there’s been a lot of buzz about Intel’s upcoming ultra low-power “Menlow” platform, and its successor, “Moorestown”, which will expand the Intel Architecture (IA) down into what it calls “Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs)” and other consumer electronics devices. In my view, this expansion into new, non-PC-centric devices and form factors is critically important for Intel’s growth and continued relevance. [ more...]

    It’s iPhone Day… But Who Wants the iPhone?

    Posted by Frank Gens on June 29th, 2007

    Line of aspiring iPhone buyers on 5th Avenue, NYC last night (Eugene Lewis for ABC News)If you don’t know today is “iPhone Day” – the first day of Apple iPhone availability from AT&T – you’ve been in a coma. As I write this, long lines of the faithful have been forming overnight to be among the first to buy an iPhone.

    But beyond “the faithful”, who’s really interested in buying an iPhone – and why, or why not? [ more...]

    The Unconventional Apple iPhone, and What Really Matters

    Posted by Frank Gens on January 12th, 2007

    [Randy Giusto, who leads IDC's Mobility, Computing, and Consumer Markets research, just posted this piece for clients on I liked it, and got his permission to post it here. - fg]

    Over the past two days there’s been a whirlwind of opinions, speculation, and additional news around Apple’s iPhone. As I pointed out on January 9th Cisco has more than an opinion; it has a lawsuit. But the focus here is not to argue over the name and how that plays out, but challenge the conventional wisdom that has appeared in the press and in Wall Street comments since Tuesday, as Apple and its iPhone are anything but conventional. [ more...]

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