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Time to Revise Our 2010 Android Apps Prediction

Posted by Frank Gens on January 5th, 2010

NexusOne_sm

Now that Google has announced the Nexus One – its own version of an Android-based “app phone” (h/t David Pogue) – they have enhanced the likelihood of an even larger and faster-growing base of Adroid apps than we predicted last month.

In IDC Predictions 2010, we forecasted that “Google Android — now on a dozen devices — will emerge as a potent competitor to the iPhone, BlackBerry, Symbian, and Microsoft platforms.”  We went on to say “there are now about 10,000 applications for Android; we predict there will be a strong ramp (albeit slower than the iPhone app ramp) for Android — look for 50,000–75,000 applications by the end of 2010.”

Why, you may ask, did we envision a slower ramp than for iPhone apps?  This is what we said:  ”The advantage of Android — that it’s more “open” than the iPhone platform — creates more compatibility challenges for developers across the different device manufacturers’ hardware.”  And this multiple-manufacturers philosophy has, indeed, created some compatibility/portability frustration for the Android developer community.

But now, with the Nexus One effectively creating a strong reference platform for Android apps, Google is trying to mitigate that issue.  The Nexus One will likely drive other Android handset manufacturers to put more a bit more weight on compatibility with the Nexus One implementation of Android, and less on hacking/modifying Android to adapt to their own unique hardware designs.  And that’s good news for Android developers – and customers.

So – if it’s not too soon to adjust our 2010 predictions (heck, it’s only January 5th!) – we’d like to revise our year-end 2010 Android apps prediction to 75,000-100,000, closer to the iPhone’s year one trajectory.  We’re not quite predicting that Apple’s running for cover; the Nexus One is, after all, a version 1.0 product, and the iPhone continues to have enormous momentum.  But with Google’s strategic move to strengthen (and de-fragment) its mobile apps platform, Apple is certainly looking at a tougher competitor today than they saw yesterday.

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6 Responses to “Time to Revise Our 2010 Android Apps Prediction”

[...] is the original post:  IDC eXchange » Blog Archive » Time to Revise Our 2010 Android Apps … By admin | category: android, android apps | tags: bit-more, drive-other, [...]

nice good work

nice to see this post
very informative thanks for sharing it

[...] to Editors * http://blogs.gartner.com/nick_jones/2009/10/08/who-will-be-weeping-android-tears/** http://blogs.idc.com/ie/?p=899*** The Samsung Galaxy Portal (i5700) is available in an exclusive black version on T-Mobile in [...]

i wonder how many apps in 2012?
listandroidphones

Nice article, especially this list. just care about 2011 Android Apps

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